Fixed or Variable Mortgage? How Canada’s Economic Shifts Could Impact Your Decision

Adrian Markiewicz • February 24, 2025

Navigating Mortgage Rates in an Uncertain Market

With Canada’s economy facing trade tensions, inflation concerns, and a potential slowdown, mortgage rates are in flux. Borrowers must weigh the risks and rewards of fixed vs. variable rates to make the best decision for their financial future.

What’s Driving Mortgage Rate Changes?


Several key factors are shaping the mortgage landscape:

Trade Uncertainty – New tariffs between the U.S. and Canada could push inflation higher, impacting bond yields and fixed mortgage rates.

Inflation Pressures – If inflation stays above the Bank of Canada’s 2% target, rate cuts may be delayed, keeping borrowing costs higher.

Recession Concerns – If economic growth slows, the BoC could cut rates, making variable-rate mortgages more attractive.


Fixed vs. Variable: Which One is Right for You?

🔒 Fixed-Rate Mortgages:
✅ Predictable payments for peace of mind
✅ Protection from future rate hikes
❌ Typically higher initial rates
❌ Costly penalties if you break your term early


📊 Variable-Rate Mortgages:
✅ Lower starting rates with potential for savings
✅ Easier to break or refinance if needed
❌ Payments can fluctuate with rate changes
❌ Higher risk if inflation pushes rates upward


What’s the Best Move Right Now?

✔ Go Fixed if you want stability and protection from rising rates.
✔ Go Variable if you believe rates will drop and you can handle some risk.
✔ Consider a Hybrid Mortgage to get the best of both worlds.


Stay Flexible & Informed

Mortgage rates are unpredictable, and the best choice today may change in a few months. Working with a mortgage professional can help you navigate these shifts and secure the best deal for your financial future.

Need expert guidance? Reach out today to discuss your options!

Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Dec 10th, 2025

By Adrian Markiewicz • December 10, 2025
Bank of Canada maintains policy rate at 2.1/4%. FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE Media Relations Ottawa, Ontario December 10, 2025 The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. Major economies around the world continue to show resilience to US trade protectionism, but uncertainty is still high. In the United States, economic growth is being supported by strong consumption and a surge in AI investment. The US government shutdown caused volatility in quarterly growth and delayed the release of some key economic data. Tariffs are causing some upward pressure on US inflation. In the euro area, economic growth has been stronger than expected, with the services sector showing particular resilience. In China, soft domestic demand, including more weakness in the housing market, is weighing on growth. Global financial conditions, oil prices, and the Canadian dollar are all roughly unchanged since the Bank’s October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Canada’s economy grew by a surprisingly strong 2.6% in the third quarter, even as final domestic demand was flat. The increase in GDP largely reflected volatility in trade. The Bank expects final domestic demand will grow in the fourth quarter, but with an anticipated decline in net exports, GDP will likely be weak. Growth is forecast to pick up in 2026, although uncertainty remains high and large swings in trade may continue to cause quarterly volatility. Canada’s labour market is showing some signs of improvement. Employment has shown solid gains in the past three months and the unemployment rate declined to 6.5% in November. Nevertheless, job markets in trade-sensitive sectors remain weak and economy-wide hiring intentions continue to be subdued. CPI inflation slowed to 2.2% in October, as gasoline prices fell and food prices rose more slowly. CPI inflation has been close to the 2% target for more than a year, while measures of core inflation remain in the range of 2½% to 3%. The Bank assesses that underlying inflation is still around 2½%. In the near term, CPI inflation is likely to be higher due to the effects of last year’s GST/HST holiday on the prices of some goods and services. Looking through this choppiness, the Bank expects ongoing economic slack to roughly offset cost pressures associated with the reconfiguration of trade, keeping CPI inflation close to the 2% target. If inflation and economic activity evolve broadly in line with the October projection, Governing Council sees the current policy rate at about the right level to keep inflation close to 2% while helping the economy through this period of structural adjustment. Uncertainty remains elevated. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond. The Bank is focused on ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is January 28, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

Mortgage Approval 101: GDS & TDS Explained

By Adrian Markiewicz • December 3, 2025
Can You Afford That Mortgage? Let’s Talk About Debt Service Ratios One of the biggest factors lenders look at when deciding whether you qualify for a mortgage is something called your debt service ratios. It’s a financial check-up to make sure you can handle the payments—not just for your new home, but for everything else you owe as well. If you’d rather skip the math and have someone walk through this with you, that’s what I’m here for. But if you like to understand how things work behind the scenes, keep reading. We’re going to break down what these ratios are, how to calculate them, and why they matter when it comes to getting approved. What Are Debt Service Ratios? Debt service ratios measure your ability to manage your financial obligations based on your income. There are two key ratios lenders care about: Gross Debt Service (GDS) This looks at the percentage of your income that would go toward housing expenses only. Total Debt Service (TDS) This includes your housing costs plus all other debt payments—car loans, credit cards, student loans, support payments, etc. How to Calculate GDS and TDS Let’s break down the formulas. GDS Formula: (P + I + T + H + Condo Fees*) ÷ Gross Monthly Income Where: P = Principal I = Interest T = Property Taxes H = Heat Condo fees are usually calculated at 50% of the total amount TDS Formula: (GDS + Monthly Debt Payments) ÷ Gross Monthly Income These ratios tell lenders if your budget is already stretched too thin—or if you’ve got room to safely take on a mortgage. How High Is Too High? Most lenders follow maximum thresholds, especially for insured (high-ratio) mortgages. As of now, those limits are typically: GDS: Max 39% TDS: Max 44% Go above those numbers and your application could be declined, regardless of how confident you feel about your ability to manage the payments. Real-World Example Let’s say you’re earning $90,000 a year, or $7,500 a month. You find a home you love, and the monthly housing costs (mortgage payment, property tax, heat) total $1,700/month. GDS = $1,700 ÷ $7,500 = 22.7% You’re well under the 39% cap—so far, so good. Now factor in your other monthly obligations: Car loan: $300 Child support: $500 Credit card/line of credit payments: $700 Total other debt = $1,500/month Now add that to the $1,700 in housing costs: TDS = $3,200 ÷ $7,500 = 42.7% Uh oh. Even though your GDS looks great, your TDS is just over the 42% limit. That could put your mortgage approval at risk—even if you’re paying similar or higher rent now. What Can You Do? In cases like this, small adjustments can make a big difference: Consolidate or restructure your debts to lower monthly payments Reallocate part of your down payment to reduce high-interest debt Add a co-applicant to increase qualifying income Wait and build savings or credit strength before applying This is where working with an experienced mortgage professional pays off. We can look at your entire financial picture and help you make strategic moves to qualify confidently. Don’t Leave It to Chance Everyone’s situation is different, and debt service ratios aren’t something you want to guess at. The earlier you start the conversation, the more time you’ll have to improve your numbers and boost your chances of approval. If you're wondering how much home you can afford—or want help analyzing your own GDS and TDS—let’s connect. I’d be happy to walk through your numbers and help you build a solid mortgage strategy.